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The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB), Halyomorpha halys, originally from East Asia, is an invasive pest that is present throughout much of the United States. It is attracted to the outside of houses on warm fall days in search of overwintering sites and can enter houses in large numbers. The brown marmorated stink bug is also a serious economic threat to fruit crops, garden vegetables, and many ornamentals. In a changing climate, agricultural losses from insect pests like BMSB are expected to increase.

USDA ARS scientists are fighting back by developing traps, sequencing the bug’s genome, and testing parasitic wasps as biocontrols. Midwest Climate Hub research fellow, Dr. Erica Kistner-Thomas is contributing to that fight through modeling the potential distribution and abundance of BMSB under future climate scenarios using a bioclimatic niche model. For more on Erica’s work, see: Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution and Abundance of the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) With Special Reference to North America and Europe.

The Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica Newman) is a highly destructive plant pest of foreign origin. It was first found in the United States in 1916 and has since spread to most states east of, and immediately to the west of, the Mississippi River. It has also spread to some western States, but tough regulations and careful monitoring have prevented its establishment elsewhere. The Japanese beetle has become a serious plant pest and a threat to American agriculture.

Scientists with USDA’s ARS and APHIS have developed an integrated pest management (IPM) program that combines biological, cultural, and chemical strategies. In support of this plan, the Midwest Climate Hub Fellow, Dr. Erica Kistner-Thomas modeled how climate change may impact the distribution and voltinism (generations produced per year) of the Japanese beetle. Model projections indicate increases in temperature would enable northward range expansion across Canada while simultaneously shifting southern range limits in the United States northward. For more on Erica’s work, see: The Potential Global Distribution and Voltinism of the Japanese Beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Current and Future Climates.

Palmer amaranth (Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson) is an annual plant in the pigweed family (Amaranthaceae). It is native to the southwest United States/northern Mexico deserts and is currently increasing its range across the country. USDA NRCS, their partners, as well as farmers and landowners are working to eradicate these infestations before they spread to new areas. Midwest Climate Hub fellow, Dr. Erica Kistner-Thomas is getting a jump on how the distribution of Palmer amaranth will change from current to future climate conditions. Climate change is going to benefit this heat-tolerant weed by lengthening its growing season, boosting seed production and expanding its potential U.S. geographic range.

Climate change in the Midwest is causing winters to be milder, on average, and is increasing the frequency and severity of heavy precipitation events. These changes are increasing the prevalence and range of pests and invasive species, which has wide-ranging impacts on human health, food security, and the management of important ecosystems.

With climate change, many invasive plants are projected to shift their ranges, creating hotspots of future invasions across the U.S. Knowing the identities of new invasive plants headed to a nearby state creates an opportunity for proactive prevention and management. Unfortunately, monitoring for and managing all range-shifting invasive plants is untenable. To help prioritize range-shifting species, Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center researchers performed impact assessments on 104 plants projected to expand into one or more mid-Atlantic states by 2040 with climate change. Their study was recently published (Oct 6, 2023) in Invasive Plant Science and Management "High-impact invasive plants expanding into mid-Atlantic states: identifying priority range-shifting species for monitoring in light of climate change."

There is growing concern that changing climate conditions will amplify the negative impacts of non-native invasive species and facilitate their expansion. Despite the potential ecological and economic impacts of invasive species expansions in the Northwest, there has been no comprehensive synthesis on climate change effects on invasive species – until now. NW CASC-funded researchers Jennifer Gervais (Oregon Wildlife Institute), Clint Muhlfeld (U.S. Geological Survey) and colleagues conducted an extensive literature analysis to determine the current state of knowledge about climate change effects on non-native invasive species in the Northwest.

Interactions between invasive species and climate change present new challenges for resource management. Prior to a new study by NE CASC fellow Evelyn Beaury and her collaborators, however, it was unclear what the common concerns, strategies, limitations, and research needs were for managing invasive species in a changing climate. In their nationwide survey of invasive species managers from government, non-profit, and private organizations, Beaury's team found that while the majority of managers are very concerned about the influence of climate change on invasive species management, the organizations they represent are typically far less engaged with this issue. This study illustrates that the complicating challenge of climate change may open a new avenue for elevating the efficiency and success of current invasive species management efforts if a collaborative approach is adopted in this area.

Biocontrol is an important management tool that utilizes one species (a biocontrol agent) to control another (a target host) and can be an effective approach for controlling populations of invasive species across broad spatial scales. Climate change, though, is complicating biocontrol, raising concerns that mismatches between how biocontrol agents and their hosts respond to climate change could alter the efficacy of current and future biocontrol programs. In response, a team of RISCC (Regional Invasive Species and Climate Change) Management Network and NE CASC (Climate Adaptation Science Center) researchers has published a new "Management Challenge" that details how climate change impacts the relationship between biocontrol agents and their target hosts and outlines management implications arising from this problem.

The widely cited “tens rule” in invasion ecology suggests that approximately 10% of established, non-native species will become invasive–or display negative impacts—when introduced to new environments. This study demonstrates that the tens rule is a poor estimate of invasion rates on a global scale. Instead, a ‘twenties rule’ is a better rule of thumb, meaning that roughly 20% of all established, non-native species eventually become invasive